Bitcoin may only wake up when September ends

The world’s largest crypto had been trading on either side of the $30k mark since mid-June.

Such a muted, range-bound summer was then obliterated in recent sessions.

Bitcoin plummeted past its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and is now trading considerably below that technical indicator for the first time since early January.

Now trading around the $26k mark, Bitcoin has erased all of its gains since mid-June, following BlackRock’s application to the SEC for a Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin’s summer lull has been upended by persistent fears that the Fed will keep US interest rates higher for longer.

The crypto world’s headwinds have only been exacerbated by rising Treasury yields that pile on the existing pressures from US regulators on crypto industry players, while broader risk sentiment remains soured by the thought of a slowing global economy.

For proper context, Bitcoin isn’t being singled out amidst the latest leg down for cryptos.

Since our last crypto article on August 15^th, Ether has fallen by about 9%, while Ripple’s XRP is trading 13.6% lower.

 

And September’s seasonality may spell more trouble ahead for Bitcoin bulls.

Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2010, September has averaged a monthly decline of 6%.

According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin prices have posted a monthly drop for the past six straight Septembers.

However, Bitcoin bulls may harken to the fact that Q4 has traditionally been a period of stellar gains.

Here’s how Bitcoin has typically fared over the final three months of the calendar year:

• October = up 31.4%*
   
• November = up 37.6%*
   
• December = up 13.3%*
   

* = monthly average since 2010

Recent history has also shown that October tends to be a good month for Bitcoin, with this original crypto having posted a monthly gain in 7 out of the past eight Octobers.

An October surge for Bitcoin should dovetail quite nicely with potential positive catalysts that may arrive in the months ahead.

• As cited in our August 8^th crypto article, a key US court’s decision pertaining to Grayscale’s lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may arrive sometime in end-September (though there’s online chatter of such a decision perhaps even arriving today).

 

• Bloomberg News also recently reported that the SEC may approve the first Ether futures ETFs in October.

 

Still, crypto bears may yet wrestle Bitcoin prices even lower, while waiting for potentially positive catalysts to arrive.

Should Bitcoin break below the $25k mark, then the next potential pit stop for prices on a south-bound journey may arrive around the $22k - $24k region that it saw on a couple of cycles back in Q1 2023.

From a bull’s perspective, Bitcoin has to clamber back above its 200-day SMA to restore some semblance of near-term confidence.